The past two days I have been busy assembling a list of all the bird species that have been seen in Ocean County, and only later finding out that other longer-term county birders generated their own lists. Comparing these lists, at least 410 species have been seen in the county, and perhaps as high as 420 species. Some of the documentation is quite old and some of the participants are now dead, so depending on whether we are cautious or generous with accepting the older sightings, that is where it stands.
To some extent, the exact number is not so important to me. What WAS more interesting to me was the next step: creating a list of species that have been seen in NJ, but have NOT yet appeared in the county, with an eye toward predicting those that are likely to be found here in the near future. The top five missing species in my opinion are as follows:
1. Trumpeter Swan. Their populations are increasing outside NJ, the first-ever sighting in NJ happened in 2012, and they have appeared in at least five NJ counties including neighboring Monmouth and Burlington counties. It’s just a matter of time. The trick is distinguishing them from the similar and more numerous Tundra Swans.
A pair of Trumpeter Swans, photographed in Yellowstone, I believe.
2. Fork-tailed Flycatcher. They have appeared in NJ approximately every other year over the last decade and have been spotted in six NJ counties. We are due.
A Fork-tailed Flycatcher. They are conspicuous enough that if one is around, somebody would notice it.
3. Brewer’s Blackbird. There have been at least 21 sightings in NJ, but none here yet. C’mon, OC birders…sort through those blackbirds.
Brewer’s Blackbird.
4. Little Egret. There has been only one Little Egret spotted in NJ, but with so much coastline and salt marsh, OC is a good bet for the second one hiding among all those Snowy Egrets. Most likely location: Great Bay Boulevard.
NJ’s first Little Egret, on the right., from Heislerville We are due for a second one.
5. Mew Gull. I know of only two Mew Gull sightings in NJ, but once again, with all that coastline, there has to be more hiding in the gull flocks.
A Mew Gull from California.
Other species that have not yet been found in the county (in Greg’s relative order of likelihood):
Brown-headed Nuthatch
Common Ground-dove (edit: the first county record was found Nov. 11, 2020)
Calliope Hummingbird (edit: the first county record was found Dec. 11, 2020)
California Gull
Spotted Redshank
Elegant Tern (edit: first county record was found Nov. 27, 2022)
Sharp-tailed Sandpiper
Vermilion Flycatcher
Mountain Bluebird
Pacific Golden-plover (edit: the first county record was found May 15, 2021)
Neotropic Cormorant
Golden-crowned Sparrow
Red-necked Stint
Little Stint
Zone-tailed Hawk
And since we’re looking into that crystal ball, how about a wild guess for a new species for New Jersey being seen in our county? My nomination: how about a Limpkin showing up in one of our cranberry bogs?
Keep an eye out for these species or other rarities and let’s see how accurate these predictions are five years from now.